Tulsi Gabbard on politics: what the evidence says · JRE #1599
SUBJECT: POLITICS
The short answer
Gabbard says a member of Congress (Steve Cohen) argued 75% of National Guard troops guarding the Capitol had likely voted for Trump and thus could not be trusted. Rep. Steve Cohen made this argument on CNN on January 18, 2021, reasoning that because the Guard is roughly 90% male and, in his estimate, only about 20% of white men voted for Biden, at most 25% of Guard members protecting the inauguration would have voted for Biden, leaving the other 75% as people who "might want to do something." Cohen's underlying statistic was wrong: validated 2020 exit-poll and post-election data put Biden's share of the white male vote at roughly 38-42%, not 20%, meaning Trump's share was closer to 58-60%, not 80%.
Not a true/false call. Every claim is logged with its sources; read the exhibits below.
it's safe to assume that 75% of the guard has likely voted for Trump and therefore could not be trusted to uphold their oath to support and defend the Constitution
What the evidence says 01 / RECORD
Rep. Steve Cohen made this argument on CNN on January 18, 2021, reasoning that because the Guard is roughly 90% male and, in his estimate, only about 20% of white men voted for Biden, at most 25% of Guard members protecting the inauguration would have voted for Biden, leaving the other 75% as people who "might want to do something." Cohen's underlying statistic was wrong: validated 2020 exit-poll and post-election data put Biden's share of the white male vote at roughly 38-42%, not 20%, meaning Trump's share was closer to 58-60%, not 80%. Because Cohen's 75% figure rests on that incorrect starting number, it is a mathematical extrapolation built on a false premise rather than any actual survey or data about how Guard troops voted; no such data exists, since individual troops' votes are not publicly tracked. The FBI and National Guard did conduct enhanced insider-threat vetting of all 25,000 troops ahead of the inauguration, a routine precaution following the January 6 Capitol riot, but officials reported no evidence of any threat and vetting was not based on party affiliation.