Dr. Rhonda Patrick on health: what the evidence says · JRE #1474

What the evidence says 01 / RECORD

Patrick claimed 70% of the U.S. population has serum vitamin D levels below 30 ng/mL, calling that threshold "insufficient." NHANES-based analyses do not support a figure that high, and the 30 ng/mL cutoff itself is not the one used by the main U.S. federal reference. The Food and Nutrition Board (FNB), whose thresholds the NIH Office of Dietary Supplements cites, sets its risk-of-deficiency cutoff at below 12 ng/mL and its risk-of-inadequacy band at 12-19.6 ng/mL, considering levels of 20 ng/mL or higher generally adequate; it does not use 20 ng/mL or 30 ng/mL as the relevant cut points. Applying those FNB thresholds to NHANES 2011-2014 data, the NIH review found only about 5% of Americans age 1 and older were at risk of deficiency (below 12 ng/mL) and another 18% at risk of inadequacy (12-19.6 ng/mL), for a combined 23% below 20 ng/mL, not 70% below 30 ng/mL. A separate, more commonly cited NHANES 2005-2006 analysis (Forrest and Stuhldreher, 2011) found 41.6% of U.S. adults had levels at or below 20 ng/mL using a stricter deficiency-only cutoff, with the rate reaching 69.2% in Hispanic and 82.1% in Black subgroups specifically, not the population overall. The 30 ng/mL "insufficiency" cutoff Patrick cites reflects older Endocrine Society-style guidance rather than the FNB's federal reference values, and the NIH review notes that the Endocrine Society itself has not defined population-wide sufficiency/insufficiency/deficiency cutoffs or endorsed routine screening. Depending on the dataset, year, cutoff, and subgroup, published U.S. prevalence estimates for low vitamin D cluster in the 20-50% range; a population-wide 70% figure below 30 ng/mL is not supported by NHANES data and appears to conflate high-risk subgroup rates, an older or looser cutoff, or non-representative sourcing with the general population.