Dr. Peter Hotez on health: what the evidence says · JRE #1451
SUBJECT: HEALTH
Not a true/false call. Every claim is logged with its sources; read the exhibits below.
the Centers for Disease Control came out with this very chilling document a few weeks ago showing that about a third of the very sick people in the hospital are under the age of 40 or 44.
What the evidence says 01 / RECORD
Hotez was likely referring to the CDC's March 18, 2020 MMWR report on COVID-19 outcomes in the U.S. through March 16, 2020, which found that adults aged 20-44 accounted for about 20% of hospitalizations (range 14.3%-20.8% given missing data), not a third. That same age group made up a smaller share of ICU admissions (12% of ICU cases, and only 2%-4% of the age group's own cases required ICU care) and a much smaller share of deaths (0.1%-0.2% case-fatality) compared with older age brackets, where severity rose sharply with age; 80% of deaths occurred in adults 65 and older. The report did note that severe illness including hospitalization and ICU admission could occur in adults of any age, which was the underlying point Hotez was making, but the specific "about a third" figure overstates the actual 20-44 hospitalization share and elides the much lower rate of severe outcomes (ICU admission, death) in that age group relative to hospitalization alone. The underlying CDC data also carried substantial uncertainty, since hospitalization, ICU, and outcome status were unknown for a large share of the 4,226 cases analyzed. The general point that younger adults were not immune to severe COVID-19 is well-supported, but the specific "a third" statistic as stated is a misleading rounding-up of the actual reported figures.