Tulsi Gabbard on politics: what the evidence says · JRE #1599
SUBJECT: POLITICS
Not a true/false call. Every claim is logged with its sources; read the exhibits below.
it's safe to assume that 75% of the guard has likely voted for Trump and therefore could not be trusted to uphold their oath to support and defend the Constitution
What the evidence says 01 / RECORD
Rep. Steve Cohen made this argument on CNN on January 18, 2021, reasoning that because the Guard is roughly 90% male and, in his estimate, only about 20% of white men voted for Biden, at most 25% of Guard members protecting the inauguration would have voted for Biden, leaving the other 75% as people who "might want to do something." Cohen's underlying statistic was wrong: validated 2020 exit-poll and post-election data put Biden's share of the white male vote at roughly 38-42%, not 20%, meaning Trump's share was closer to 58-60%, not 80%. Because Cohen's 75% figure rests on that incorrect starting number, it is a mathematical extrapolation built on a false premise rather than any actual survey or data about how Guard troops voted; no such data exists, since individual troops' votes are not publicly tracked. The FBI and National Guard did conduct enhanced insider-threat vetting of all 25,000 troops ahead of the inauguration, a routine precaution following the January 6 Capitol riot, but officials reported no evidence of any threat and vetting was not based on party affiliation.