Dr. Shawn Baker on health care spending: what the evidence says · JRE #2069
SUBJECT: HEALTH CARE SPENDING
Not a true/false call. Every claim is logged with its sources; read the exhibits below.
we spend $4.3 trillion a year on health care in this country, and what do we get for it? We've got one of the sickest populations in the world. Our life expectancy is going down.
What the evidence says 01 / RECORD
The spending figure is roughly accurate for the period Baker appears to be citing: U.S. national health expenditures were about $4.3 trillion in 2021 and rose to $4.5 trillion in 2022, according to CMS data. The claim that life expectancy "is going down," however, does not reflect the most recent data available at the time of this podcast. U.S. life expectancy fell sharply during the pandemic, from 78.8 years in 2019 to a low of 76.4 years in 2021, but then reversed course: CDC final mortality data show life expectancy rose to 77.5 years in 2022 and further to 78.4 years in 2023, driven mainly by declining COVID-19, heart disease, and drug-overdose deaths. As of the most recent reporting, U.S. life expectancy had been rising for two consecutive years, not declining, though it remained below the 2019 pre-pandemic peak. The claim is therefore mixed: the spending figure is roughly correct, but the "going down" characterization of life expectancy is outdated and contradicted by subsequent CDC data.