Casey Means on autism: what the evidence says · JRE #2210
SUBJECT: AUTISM
Not a true/false call. Every claim is logged with its sources; read the exhibits below.
One in 36 children has autism now in the United States. That was one in 150 in the year 2000. And in California, where I live, it's one in 22. One in 22 with a lifetime neurodevelopmental disorder. We've got infertility going up 1% per year. 25% of men now, under 40, have erectile dysfunction,
What the evidence says 01 / RECORD
The autism figures match CDC surveillance data. The CDC Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network reported overall ASD prevalence of 27.6 per 1,000 (one in 36) among 8-year-olds for 2020, with rates ranging from 23.1 per 1,000 in Maryland to 44.9 per 1,000 (about one in 22) in California, so the one in 36 and California one in 22 figures are correct. The one in 150 figure was the CDC's first ADDM estimate, based on 2000 and 2002 surveillance years, so that comparison is also accurate. The claim that 25 percent of men under 40 have erectile dysfunction is at the high end and not well supported: a peer-reviewed review of ED in young adults cites a US cohort prevalence of 14.2 percent and notes that estimates of up to 35 percent are outliers from broad-definition studies, while much of the literature reports 5 to 10 percent for men under 40. The autism claims are accurate, but the 25 percent ED figure overstates the more commonly reported prevalence.