Joe Rogan on pharmaceuticals: what the evidence says · JRE #2223
SUBJECT: PHARMACEUTICALS
Not a true/false call. Every claim is logged with its sources; read the exhibits below.
they knew there was going to be cardiovascular events people were going to get strokes... They made like $12 billion, they got fined seven, and 50 to 60 thousand people died.
What the evidence says 01 / RECORD
Rogan claimed internal Merck documents showed the company knew Vioxx caused strokes and heart attacks, that Merck made $12 billion, was fined $7 billion, and that 50,000-60,000 people died as a result. The scientific basis for the cardiovascular-risk claim is sound: a 2005 Lancet case-control study (Graham et al.) using Kaiser Permanente data found rofecoxib (Vioxx) significantly increased the risk of acute myocardial infarction and sudden cardiac death compared with celecoxib, and internal Merck communications surfaced during litigation showed the company was aware of cardiovascular safety signals before the 2004 withdrawal. However, the financial and mortality figures are overstated or conflated: Merck's 2007 global settlement to resolve Vioxx personal-injury litigation was $4.85 billion, not $7 billion, and it was a civil settlement rather than a regulatory "fine"; more than 27,000 lawsuits were filed against Merck, a figure that appears to be the actual source of the number Rogan cites as a death toll. Death-toll estimates in the 50,000-60,000 range trace back to extrapolations of the Graham et al. odds ratios (commonly cited as roughly 27,000 to 55,000 excess cases of serious coronary heart disease, not confirmed deaths) rather than a verified body count, and these extrapolations have been disputed by epidemiologists over methodology and assumptions. Overall, the underlying safety concern is well-supported, but the specific dollar figures and death count as stated are inaccurate or conflate distinct measures (lawsuits filed vs. deaths, settlement vs. fine).