Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on demographics: what the evidence says · JRE #2461
SUBJECT: DEMOGRAPHICS
Not a true/false call. Every claim is logged with its sources; read the exhibits below.
I mean, dramatically this year, they dropped to 1. 75.
What the evidence says 01 / RECORD
CDC's National Center for Health Statistics reports the US total fertility rate was approximately 1.62 births per woman in 2023 and 1.599 in 2024 (NCHS Data Brief No. 535, July 2025), the lowest level on record and well below the 2.1 replacement rate. The general fertility rate (births per 1,000 women aged 15-44) fell by only 1% from 2023 to 2024, to 53.8, which CDC's own summary describes as a modest year-over-year change rather than a dramatic single-year drop. No CDC data series shows the rate at 1.75 in the current period; a total fertility rate near 1.7 last occurred around the mid-1970s, decades before the timeframe Kennedy references. The 1.75 figure is inconsistent with official current data, which puts the rate lower, near 1.6, and describes a gradual multi-decade decline rather than a sudden one-year plunge.