Tim Pool on statistics: what the evidence says · JRE #1258
“this was i think i think it was in the atlantic where they surveyed something like 10 different international security experts who said based on what the platforms are doing based on how the people are responding one guy said it was like 90 chance”
What the evidence says
Tim Pool claimed The Atlantic published a survey of roughly ten international security experts on the probability of U.S. civil war, with one expert putting the figure at 90%. No Atlantic article, survey, or expert poll matching this description could be located through targeted searches. The Atlantic has published commentary skeptical of civil-war predictions (for example, a 2021 review of Stephen Marche's book "The Next Civil War"), but that piece does not contain a survey of security experts or cite a 90% figure. Nationally representative academic surveys that do exist on this general topic poll the American public, not security experts, and find much lower figures: peer-reviewed surveys from 2023 and 2024 found only about 5.7% and 6.5% of respondents, respectively, strongly or very strongly agreeing that civil war was likely in the near term, far below the 90% figure Pool attributes to an expert. As described, the claim could not be verified against any identifiable published source and appears to be a misremembered or invented statistic.